For Retailers It is Black Tuesday

For Retailers It is Black Tuesday

Tom Van Riper, Forbes Online

For major retailers, the week of darkness has arrived. With $4 gasoline and tight credit keeping consumers' wallets shut, it's time to announce dismal profits. Unless you're a discounter or a seller of hip clothing really ahead of the fashion curve, forget about it. Wall Street is braced for the worst.

Here's one sign of how bad things are: "Coupon redemption is at an all-time high," says Britt Beemer, president of America's Research Group, which studies shopper behavior. Beemer's research shows that 59% of shoppers last month showed up at stores with specific lists of items they were limiting themselves to buying. The historical average over the 29 years he's been surveying: 33%. Also, more people are reporting plans to shift their shopping from chains to independent stores, where they think price haggling is more accepted.

And he finds that half of women shoppers have no opinion of this season's spring apparel lines, simply because they haven't bothered to look closely at them. Better to postpone buying decisions for now. "That's unusual because winter to spring is always the most dramatic seasonal fashion change," Beemer says.

Note: The Administration has shafted the ordinary citizen. The big mistake was discouraging the citizen as CONSUMER.

The retailers now join the consumer led recession parade.

Consumer Led Recession

Hale Bonddad Stewart, HuffPost

In the first quarter of 2008, personal spending on durable goods decreased by 6.1% and personal spending on nondurable goods decreased by 1.3%. The only area of personal spending to increase was services, which increased 3.4%.

In other words, in the first quarter of 2008, people were buying less "stuff". And it's not just a decrease in one category but both categories of physical goods that raises my concern.

Going forward the key variable to watch will be job growth. Declining job growth means declining income, lowering confidence and thereby decreasing spending further.

All of this also means that if this trend continues (declining job growth leading to declining wages leading to declining sentiment leading to lower spending) the second half of this year might have some ugly surprises in store for us.

Reuters - The economy likely shed more jobs in April as the economy continued to weaken against the backdrop of a deeper deterioration in the housing market and a growing credit crunch.

Economists polled by Reuters ahead of the Labor Department report to be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT have forecast that the economy lost 80,000 jobs after losing the same amount a month earlier.

[excerpt]

Consumer Led Recession

Hale Bonddad Stewart

In the first quarter of 2008, personal spending on durable goods decreased by 6.1% and personal spending on nondurable goods decreased by 1.3%. The only area of personal spending to increase was services, which increased 3.4%.

In other words, in the first quarter of 2008, people were buying less "stuff". And it's not just a decrease in one category but both categories of physical goods that raises my concern.

Going forward the key variable to watch will be job growth. Declining job growth means declining income, lowering confidence and thereby decreasing spending further.

All of this also means that if this trend continues (declining job growth leading to declining wages leading to declining sentiment leading to lower spending) the second half of this year might have some ugly surprises in store for us.

Reuters - The economy likely shed more jobs in April as the economy continued to weaken against the backdrop of a deeper deterioration in the housing market and a growing credit crunch.

Economists polled by Reuters ahead of the Labor Department report to be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT have forecast that the economy lost 80,000 jobs after losing the same amount a month earlier.

[excerpt]