Meanwhile, Assad is trying the formula that failed Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt and Saleh in Yemen - buying time by dismissing his cabinet, a move scheduled to take place tomorrow, and promising some cosmetic reforms.
Abolishing the supremacy of the Baath Party and the emergency regime that has been in place since 1963 will do little to reduce his and his family's grip on the military and economic resources of the state. At the same time, he is trying to recreate the regime of fear that his father imposed in 1982 and which has given Bashar 11 years of quiet. He shoots and kills civilians, arrests hundreds, and mainly relies on the military, which, unlike its Egyptian counterpart, risks losing many of the benefits it enjoys because of its loyalty to the regime.
Sooner or later, he's toast. The only questions are how long it will take and who will take over.
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Syrian regime change
posted by Carl in Jerusalem
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